The North American freight market has entered a supply-driven recovery. Spot rates across dry van, reefer, and flatbed are at multi-year highs. Capacity is tightening on structural factors - driver shortages, fleet contraction, and regulatory pressure - not a demand surge. For Canadian shippers, conditions are firming alongside a stronger US truckload market, while the CUSMA joint review beginning July 1 adds a layer of cross-border uncertainty that has no recent precedent.
This update covers what is happening in the Canadian freight market right now: current rates, capacity, diesel costs, the CUSMA situation, and what shippers should expect and do through fall 2026.
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The most important thing to understand about the current freight market is that it is tightening because supply is shrinking, not because demand is surging. After two years of excess capacity and depressed rates through 2023–2025, the market is rebalancing. Carriers exited. Fleets contracted. Driver availability tightened. Equipment replacement slowed. The result is a structurally tighter market where rates are rising even without broad-based freight demand growth.
According to ACT Research’s May 2026 freight forecast, the recovery is defined by transition rather than acceleration. Carrier exits, slower fleet expansion, and growing driver constraints are limiting available capacity. Spot truckload rates have remained above prior-year levels, and contract pricing is beginning to respond as the market tightens.
C.H. Robinson raised their full-year 2026 dry van truckload rate forecast from 4% year-over-year growth to 6%, reflecting stronger-than-expected conditions. FTR Transportation Intelligence reports dry van spot rates up 55% year over year. Summar Financial’s June 2026 update notes that tender rejections have remained above 10% for more than 60 consecutive days - a sustained signal that contracted capacity is being rejected in favor of higher-paying spot freight.
For Canadian shippers, the takeaway is straightforward: rates are higher than they were 12 months ago, available trucks are harder to secure, and both conditions are likely to persist through Q3.
DAT reported the national average dry van spot rate at $2.68 per mile in April 2026, with contract rates at $3.29 per mile. By June, IEL Freight reported the all-in spot rate (including fuel surcharge) at $3.59 per mile. The spot-contract gap has been narrowing as contract renewals catch up to spot market strength. Outbound dry van rejection rates in Georgia reached 29%, approximately three times the levels observed during the same period in 2025, according to IEL’s June market analysis.
Reefer continues to lead the rate recovery. DAT’s April 2026 data showed the national reefer spot rate at $3.12 per mile. By June, IEL Freight reported reefer spot rates at $3.62–$3.75 per mile, driven by peak produce season demand and structural capacity constraints. ACT Research’s March 2026 reefer analysis confirmed that reefer capacity is no longer loosening meaningfully, as sustained fleet attrition, tightening driver availability, and rising fuel costs constrain supply. California reefer rejection rates are approaching 30%, according to IEL - an extremely significant indicator of nationwide refrigerated capacity tightening.
For reefer-specific pricing details, see How Much Does Reefer LTL Shipping Cost.
Flatbed has been the strongest-performing equipment type in 2026. DAT reported the national flatbed spot rate at $3.46 per mile in April. Scale Funding’s May data showed $3.60 per mile nationally. By June, IEL Freight reported $4.27 per mile all-in. DAT iQ Principal Analyst Dean Croke attributed the strength to data center construction freight, structural steel, and lumber demand. Flatbed capacity is 81.6% tighter year over year, according to DAT’s April load-to-truck ratio data.
Canadian freight conditions do not move independently of the US market. Approximately 75% of Canadian carriers are involved in cross-border freight, which means that when US truckload markets tighten, Canadian capacity and pricing follow.
According to ACT Research’s May 2026 Canada freight rates analysis, Canadian rates remain firmer than earlier in the cycle, supported by tighter capacity, improved freight activity, and a stronger US truckload market. Domestic demand is not broad-based, but Canada’s smaller carrier base and prior fleet contraction continue to support rate floors. Intra-Canada dry van pricing has softened from recent highs, but capacity conditions remain tight enough to limit downside.
Canada’s Class 8 tractor fleet is smaller year over year, according to ACT Research. This fleet contraction, combined with tight driver availability, means that Canadian truckload pricing is structurally supported even without a strong domestic demand surge. Cross-border pricing is also receiving support from firmer US spot and contract conditions.
The Canadian trucking industry employs approximately 292,400 workers and generates $68.4 billion CAD in annual revenue, with trucking moving 72.6% of land freight tonnage in the country. Operating expenses average 92.5 cents per revenue dollar for for-hire carriers, leaving thin margins that make cost management critical in any rate environment.
See how LTL and FTL rates are trending for Canada freight.
The driver shortage is the structural issue behind the rate recovery. It is no longer a future risk - it is an operational daily reality in 2026.
Trucking HR Canada estimates 55,000 unfilled driver positions across Canada. The Canadian Trucking Alliance’s Driver Shortage Task Force has identified approximately 80,000 vacant seats in long-haul trucking, with the average driver age climbing past 55. Retirements are outpacing new entrants, and the gap is widening.
In February 2026, the Canada Trucking Operators Association (CTOA) reported that member carriers are operating with up to a 15% shortfall in driver capacity. Statistics Canada’s Q3 2025 data recorded 11,600 vacant transport truck driver positions. By April 2026, the Canadian Trucking Alliance reported the fourth straight month of year-over-year decline in the number of drivers actively seeking work - meaning the available driver pool is contracting, not just the employed pool.
Insurance premiums for Canadian carriers are rising 8–15% in 2026, adding another cost layer. Fleets are prioritizing maintenance, utilization, and efficiency over expansion, which means the industry has limited room to absorb demand spikes. When peak season hits, there are fewer surge trucks to call on than in prior years.
Canadian diesel peaked at CAD $2.35 per litre on April 6, 2026, and has since eased to CAD $2.17 per litre as of May 25, according to GlobalPetrolPrices. The direction has improved, but the baseline remains historically elevated.
In Ontario - the highest-volume freight corridor in Canada - diesel has ranged from $1.55 to $2.25 per litre in 2026. The federal carbon levy adds approximately 17.6 cents per litre to diesel nationwide. Alberta’s diesel prices are significantly lower due to proximity to refining infrastructure, while Atlantic provinces pay the most due to import costs.
In the US, diesel closed the week of June 8 at $5.21 per gallon (approximately CAD $1.90/L), down from a 2026 peak of $5.64 in May, according to EIA data cited by Summar Financial. The decline helps, but the baseline is still more than $2.00 per gallon above May 2025.
Fuel typically accounts for 28–40% of Canadian trucking operating expenses. C.H. Robinson’s March 2026 analysis notes that Canadian diesel prices have increased sequentially nearly every week in 2026, keeping upward pressure on fuel surcharges. For shippers, higher diesel translates directly to higher all-in freight rates through fuel surcharge adjustments.
The CUSMA joint review begins July 1, 2026 - the first mandatory review since the agreement took effect in 2020. The outcome will shape cross-border freight conditions for years.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has signaled that the US is likely to push for a framework of annual reviews rather than a 16-year extension, according to RBC’s April 2026 trade analysis. This would keep the agreement in force but under continuous renegotiation pressure. Canada has pivoted to a “Fortress North America” strategy, positioning itself as a secure supply chain partner for the US, according to reporting from the Financial Times on June 8.
Scotiabank economic research has called the CUSMA review “the single most consequential macro uncertainty facing the Canadian economy this year.” For freight specifically, the implications are: if CUSMA rules of origin tighten, more goods lose duty-free status under the 10% Section 122 tariff. If the agreement enters annual reviews instead of being extended, long-term supply chain planning becomes harder. Either outcome increases compliance complexity for cross-border shippers.
Section 232 tariffs on steel (25%), aluminum (25%), and lumber remain in effect regardless of CUSMA compliance. These are not going away and represent a structural cost for Canadian manufacturers and construction-sector shippers.
For the full tariff breakdown, timeline, and shipper guidance, see our US–Canada Tariffs Guide.
Q3 2026 is arriving with two seasonal forces layered on top of an already tight market.
First, produce season is in full swing and running more aggressively than normal. The rolling wave of North American harvests - starting in the Southeast in spring, moving through California and the Pacific Northwest in summer, and reaching Canadian growing regions in late summer - is absorbing reefer capacity at rates well above historical levels. IEL Freight’s June analysis shows reefer rejection rates in California approaching 30%, approximately double historical levels for this period. When reefer trucks redirect to agricultural regions, shippers moving other temperature-controlled goods face reduced availability and higher spot rates.
Second, traditional peak freight season begins in August as retailers stock for back-to-school and early holiday inventory. This layers dry van and flatbed demand on top of the produce-driven reefer tightness. The combination typically drives the highest rates and tightest capacity of the year.
For Canadian shippers, the additional factor is the late-summer Canadian harvest season (Ontario, BC, and Prairie provinces), which adds domestic reefer demand on top of cross-border produce flows. If the CUSMA review creates any disruption to cross-border freight patterns, Q3 capacity could tighten further on uncertainty-driven stockpiling.
Contract renewals happening in Q3 are occurring in what ACT Research and Summar Financial both describe as one of the strongest carrier negotiating environments in years. Shippers renewing contracts should expect upward rate pressure.
Contract renewals happening in Q3 are occurring in what ACT Research and Summar Financial both describe as one of the strongest carrier negotiating environments in years. Shippers renewing contracts should expect upward rate pressure.
Lock in contract rates on your busiest lanes before Q3 renewals push pricing higher. If you are still operating on spot-only for recurring shipments, you are paying peak-season premiums on every load. Even modest committed volume can secure contract rates 10–15% below the current spot.
Quote both LTL and FTL on every shipment of 6+ pallets. The LTL-to-FTL breakpoint shifts as rates change. In a tighter market, the crossover point can drop to 8 pallets or lower. Your freight specialist can run the comparison on every load. To better understand how it works, read our LTL vs FTL shipping differences guide.
Book reefer capacity early. Produce season plus the structural driver shortage means limited reefer availability at any price. If your freight requires temperature control, get quotes and book carriers ahead of your ship dates, not the day before.
Monitor the CUSMA review. The July 1 review will shape your 2027 supply chain planning. Follow CFIB, EDC, and Government of Canada trade updates for developments. If your goods cross the border, audit CUSMA compliance now.
Budget for higher fuel surcharges. Canadian diesel at $2.17/L is down from the April peak but remains historically elevated. Fuel surcharges are recalculated frequently and will remain a meaningful component of your freight invoice through Q3.
Work with a broker who watches the market for you. Freightzy’s freight specialists track rate conditions, capacity shifts, and tariff developments across the Canadian and cross-border market. When conditions change, your carrier selection and rate strategy adjust proactively.
Rates are higher and capacity is tighter than 12 months ago. The best way to manage your freight costs in this market is to compare options on every shipment. Freightzy quotes from 100+ vetted carriers across LTL, FTL, and reefer - domestically and cross-border.
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Yes. Canadian freight rates are firmer than they were 12 months ago, supported by tighter capacity, a smaller Class 8 tractor fleet, and stronger US truckload conditions. C.H. Robinson raised their 2026 dry van rate forecast from 4% to 6% year-over-year growth. Reefer and flatbed rates are seeing even stronger increases due to produce season demand and structural capacity constraints. The recovery is supply-driven, meaning rates are rising because there are fewer available trucks, not because there is a freight demand boom.
Three factors: driver shortages, fleet contraction, and cost pressure. Trucking HR Canada estimates 55,000 unfilled driver positions. The average Canadian truck driver is past age 55, and retirements are outpacing new entrants. Canada’s Class 8 tractor fleet is smaller year over year after carrier exits during the 2023–2025 downturn. Insurance premiums are rising 8–15%, and diesel costs remain elevated, further pressuring carrier margins and discouraging fleet expansion.
The CUSMA joint review begins July 1, 2026 and could result in extension, annual reviews, or renegotiation. For freight, tighter rules of origin would mean more goods lose duty-free status and face the 10% Section 122 tariff. Annual reviews (instead of a 16-year extension) would add long-term planning uncertainty. Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum remain regardless. Shippers should audit CUSMA compliance now and build rate flexibility into cross-border freight contracts.
It depends on shipment size, but the breakpoint is shifting. In a tighter market, FTL can become cost-competitive at lower pallet counts (8 pallets or fewer) because LTL rates are under pressure from capacity constraints. Freightzy quotes both LTL and FTL on every shipment so your freight specialist can recommend the best option for your specific lane and volume.
Quarterly. This page is updated every quarter with the latest rate data, capacity conditions, diesel costs, tariff developments, and seasonal outlook. The next update will cover Q4 2026 conditions, including the outcome of the CUSMA July review and the fall peak freight season.